Introduction
Population projections are estimates of the population at future dates. They illustrate plausible courses of future population change based on assumptions about future births, deaths, net international migration, and net domestic migration. Projected numbers are typically based on an estimated population consistent with the most recent decennial census as, projected forward using a variant of the cohort-component method. For dates when both population estimates and projections are available, population estimates are the preferred data.

Data Overview
The total population is projected to increase to 256,380 in 2033.
​
Over the next ten years there will be a projected increase of:

• 3.2% in those aged under 64.
• 14% in those aged 65-84
• 27.8% in those aged over 85.
  
  These projected increases show the significant challenges the council could face particularly with adult social care and health provision.
  

Figure 1: Oldham's Projected Population 2011-2033.


Table 1: Oldham's Projected Population 2011-2033 by Broad Age Bands

	Estimated and Forecast Population at mid-year
Year	0-4	5-15	16-24	25-44	45-64	65-84	85+	Total
2011	16,460	33,910	26,600	59,940	55,100	28,940	4,210	225,160
2012	16,550	34,210	26,310	59,680	55,020	30,080	4,230	226,080
2013	16,610	34,650	26,230	59,770	55,180	31,110	4,280	227,840
2014	16,790	35,160	26,100	60,150	55,870	31,710	4,330	230,120
2015	16,940	35,790	26,400	60,680	56,720	32,230	4,300	233,050
2016	17,040	36,390	26,660	61,940	58,010	32,560	4,410	237,020
2017	17,090	36,990	26,820	62,320	58,770	32,950	4,490	239,430
2018	17,010	37,600	26,940	63,150	59,180	33,450	4,530	241,850
2019	16,830	38,130	27,210	63,980	59,300	33,850	4,630	243,910
2020	16,370	38,570	27,480	64,030	59,320	34,050	4,590	244,420
2021	16,000	38,980	26,920	62,980	58,590	34,400	4,210	242,090
2022	15,710	38,540	27,100	63,210	58,570	34,470	4,350	241,950
2023	15,560	38,490	28,000	63,860	58,770	34,700	4,430	243,810
2024	15,480	38,340	28,850	64,410	59,050	35,040	4,520	245,680
2025	15,490	38,110	29,600	64,760	59,390	35,490	4,590	247,430
2026	15,580	37,700	30,340	65,100	59,690	35,990	4,640	249,040
2027	15,460	37,510	30,790	65,590	59,930	36,540	4,690	250,520
2028	15,470	37,240	31,180	65,890	60,280	37,000	4,800	251,850
2029	15,470	36,890	31,580	66,120	60,470	37,550	4,950	253,030
2030	15,450	36,530	31,850	66,280	60,700	38,210	5,040	254,060
2031	15,420	36,170	32,030	66,410	61,000	38,820	5,100	254,950
2032	15,370	35,820	32,060	66,420	61,420	39,160	5,420	255,680
2033	15,340	35,480	32,030	66,470	61,850	39,570	5,660	256,380

Table 2: Components of Population Change

	Components of Change
Year	Births	Deaths	Net Migration	TFR	SMR
2011-12	3,255	2,023	-311	2.19	125
2012-13	3,279	1,982	463	2.19	121
2013-14	3,303	2,064	1040	2.17	124
2014-15	3,321	2,209	1824	2.14	131
2015-16	3,322	2,154	2802	2.08	127
2016-17	3,317	2,097	1188	2.03	122
2017-18	3,240	2,123	1302	1.95	121
2018-19	3,208	2,102	958	1.91	117
2019-20	3,077	2,431	-136	1.82	133
2020-21	2,948	2,334	-2945	1.77	127
2021-22	3,197	2,320	-1019	1.95	128
2022-23	2,991	2,278	1150	1.82	125
2023-24	3,012	2,294	1150	1.82	125
2024-25	3,030	2,319	1035	1.81	125
2025-26	3,043	2,347	920	1.80	125
2026-27	3,052	2,380	805	1.80	125
2027-28	3,058	2,418	690	1.79	125
2028-29	3,062	2,455	575	1.79	125
2029-30	3,063	2,490	460	1.78	125
2030-31	3,062	2,523	345	1.78	125
2031-32	3,060	2,555	230	1.77	125
2032-33	3,058	2,588	230	1.77	125

Figure 2: Total Population Projected Change 2025-2035 by Ward/District


It's clear from figure 2 above that the projected increase in population is not uniform between wards and districts. With certain wards such as Chadderton North, Crompton and Shaw seeing a projected decrease in the population from 2025 to 2035.


Further Information & Resources: