Introduction

There is growing concern over the UK’s falling birth rate. Births have been decreasing steadily in every nation in the UK for the past decade. There were 605,479 live births in England and Wales in 2022, a 3.1% decrease from 624,828 in 2021 and the lowest number since 2002; the number remains in line with the recent trend of decreasing live births observed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly a third of live births (30%) in 2022 were to mothers from outside the UK, the highest proportion since records began.

Possible reasons contributing towards the decline in the birth rate are:

• Increased educational and occupational opportunities for women
• High childcare costs
• High housing costs
• Temporary impact of COVID-19

The trend has implications for the UK’s public finances and growth potential due to the future impact of a shrinking working age population. It is important that we closely monitor birth statistics as they rise and fall, and measure these trends to track important changes and what they may mean for the future of our communities.

Data Overview

The chart below shows live births and the total fertility rate (TFR) in Oldham between 2010 and 2022. The number of births falls from around 2018, meaning the reduction in the decreased level of births cannot be fully explained by the Covid-19 pandemic. A slight recovery in the number of births can be seen in 2021 and 2022, although we do not see figures returning to pre 2018 levels. The total fertility rate could not be calculated for 2022 because at the time of analysis the ONS mid-year population estimates had not yet been released.

Figure 2: Live births and TFR in Oldham trend
Source: TFR ONS, Number of births aggregated from individual birth records

Further Information & Resources

Births in England and Wales: 2022
ONS live births and stillbirths annual summary statistics